Over three decades, the UN Climate Change Conferences have served as the principal forum for assessing progress, negotiating commitments, and coordinating international responses to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and climate impacts.
The 2025 summit arrives at a critical moment: scientific evidence indicates that climate risks are intensifying, while global mitigation efforts remain insufficient to meet internationally agreed temperature limits.
Recent analyses indicate that global warming has already reached 1.4C above pre-industrial levels, with 2024 recorded as the hottest year in modern history by the Copernicus Climate Service.
Atmospheric CO2 concentrations continue to rise sharply, accelerating from an annual increase of 0.8 ppm in the 1960s to 2.4 ppm per year between 2011 and 2020, followed by a 3.5 ppm jump from 2023 to 2024, the largest single-year increase on record, according to the World Meteorological Organisation.
The Copernicus Climate Service says 2024 was the hottest year in modern history.
Annual rate of increase of CO2 in the atmosphere in the 1960s, measured in ppm
Annual rate of increase of CO2 in the atmosphere in 2024, measured in ppm
The scale and pace of these changes suggest that the 1.5C threshold is increasingly likely to be exceeded within the near term.
Critical ecosystems are experiencing unprecedented stress. Coral reefs are undergoing widespread dieback, polar ice sheets are approaching tipping points that could commit the world to multi-meter sea-level rise, and mountain glaciers are retreating at accelerated rates.
Biodiversity is similarly under pressure: the WWF Living Planet Report 2024 documents a 73% decline in monitored wildlife populations over 50 years, demonstrating that the degradation of ecosystems is continuing at a scale that threatens ecological stability and the provision of essential services.
Current national climate commitments remain insufficient to reverse these trends.
Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are the core mechanism through which countries outline their plans to reduce GHG emissions and adapt to climate impacts under the Paris Agreement. Each country is required to update its NDC every five years, reflecting progressively higher ambition.
COP30 marks the next major deadline for submission of updated NDCs covering the 2030–2035 period. However, only 65 countries out of 195 have submitted their updated NDCs so far, despite the September deadline, according to the latest UN NDC report.
These NDCs are expected to reduce the global GHG emissions by 17% by 2035, compared to 2019 levels. However, according to the IPCC, at least a 43% reduction in global GHG emissions is required by 2030, compared to 2019 levels, in line with the 1.5C target.
Meanwhile, fossil fuels continue to dominate global emissions. Coal, oil and gas account for 75% of total GHG emissions and 90% of CO2 emissions.
In 2024, renewable energy capacity expanded by 582 gigawatts (GW), supported by a 7% year-on-year increase in investment. Despite this record growth, the world remains significantly off track to meet the 2030 goal.
Additionally, governments now project even higher levels of coal production through 2035 and gas production through 2050 than they did in 2023. Under current plans, global fossil fuel output in 2030 is expected to exceed the 1.5C-consistent pathway by 500% for coal, 31% for oil, and 92% for gas. Collectively, these projections surpass the fossil fuel production implied by countries’ own mitigation pledges by 35% in 2030 and 141% by 2050.
Coal, oil and gas account for 75% of the world's GHG emissions.
Coal, oil and gas account for 90% of the world's CO2 emissions.
Finance remains a critical determinant of progress. COP29 established a goal of mobilising $300bn annually by 2035 for developing countries, widely regarded as insufficient.
A coalition of 35 finance ministers has proposed scaling climate finance to $1.3trn per year, while research indicates that global flows must reach $7.5trn annually through 2030 and $8.8trn per year from 2031 to 2050 to align with the 1.5C pathway. Private finance is expected to play a central role in mobilising this finance.
These challenges are unfolding amid a broader leadership vacuum in global climate governance. Recent COPs held in major oil-producing states have faced criticism for the prominent role of fossil fuel interests, while shifting geopolitical dynamics and the withdrawal of the US from the Paris Agreement earlier this year have further complicated progress. Countries such as Australia, China and Brazil are stepping forward in steering global ambition.
However, as governments grapple with competing priorities and constrained resources, the private sector is increasingly stepping into a leadership role. Businesses, investors and financial institutions are emerging as key actors in driving decarbonisation, financing innovation, and shaping the transition to net-zero.