The first week of COP29: The six biggest talking points

Week one has come to a close in Baku, with negotiations well underway to carve out a new global finance goal. Along with new clean technology pledges and updated national climate targets, week one in Baku has been sidetracked somewhat by fossil fuel influence. So, what has happened so far at COP29?

Published 16th November 2024

The first week at COP is often like reaching the top of a rollercoaster. World leaders come and go in a blur and promising discussions build up the notion that something strong can come from discussions between thousands of delegates. It’s all good fun, and things move very quickly. Then the big names depart and negotiations get clogged up over language, inclusions and exclusions. Before you know it things are at risk of grounding to a halt.

COP29 in Baku has followed a similar formula. Dubbed the “finance COP”, the main discussions have focused on a new financial mechanism to help developing nations respond to the climate crisis. There have been some examples of leadership from certain nations and energy initiatives have been announced in abundance.

Still, for all the good that COP29 is trying to do, the host nation’s ties to fossil fuels has created a lot of tension, and even more questions. As delegates head into a well-deserved rest day, edie summarises the key talking points of the first week in Baku.

A breakthrough was made on carbon markets

On the opening day of COP29 (11 November), delegates reached an agreement on carbon market standards under Article 6.4 of the Paris Agreement. This framework aims to create carbon credits that will help reduce emissions and attract investment, particularly in developing countries.

Article 6 of the Paris Agreement allows countries to collaborate on climate action through carbon markets, with two components: Article 6.2, which enables carbon credit trading between countries, and Article 6.4, which establishes a global carbon market overseen by the UN.

By the end of Day one, countries approved standards for creating carbon credits under Article 6.4, ensuring the credits represent real, additional and verified emissions reductions.

On Day four (14 November), the UNFCCC Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA) released draft texts on further guidance for Article 6.4, along with a new draft for Article 6.2—the first since the Bonn talks.

Delegates had little time to review the updated documents, and the session was adjourned soon after it began. When the 6.2 group reconvened to review the 43-page text, many delegates expressed dissatisfaction with the draft, with some amendments missing or delayed.

SBSTA chair Harry Vreuls of the Netherlands raised concerns about the growing complexity and urged parties to focus on key issues rather than minor details. Despite hopes for overnight progress, the meeting ended after just over an hour with no clear timeline for resumption.

Ongoing negotiations are needed to finalise the rules for both Article 6.2 and 6.4 to ensure the carbon market functions properly. Once fully implemented, Article 6 is expected to reduce the cost of meeting national climate goals by $250bn annually.

Global climate finance goal: Progressing with setbacks

On the first day of COP29, discussions also focused on directing funds to the UN’s “New Collective Quantified Goal” (NCQG) for climate finance. The NCQG sets a minimum target of $100bn annually to address the climate crisis, a goal that developed nations have historically struggled to meet.

By the second day (12 November), the co-chairs of the NCQG contact group released the first draft of a decision text. However, negotiations saw the original 9-page document balloon to 34 pages, with several subheadings reflecting language favoured by developed countries but potentially harmful to low-income nations bearing the brunt of the climate crisis. These additions placed emphasis on an “investment layer” that prioritises loans and corporate investments over grants, which are more crucial for the financial needs of vulnerable countries.

Representatives from low-income and developing nations, notably India and China, strongly advocated for ‘no-strings-attached’ finance, urging developed countries to provide funding that would allow poorer nations to take climate action without falling into debt.

On the third day (13 November), during a high-level intervention, India emphasised the importance of clarity on the NCQG for developing countries to update their national emissions reduction plans (NDCs), due in February 2024.

A series of negotiations saw the draft text reduce from 30 pages to 25 pages, a matter that will require further discussion in the coming week.

A major point of contention has been not only the source of finance but also the scale of the contributions. The UN-convened Independent High-Level Expert Group on Climate Finance recommended on the fourth day that wealthy nations commit to $300bn per year by 2035. This pledge could unlock an additional $1trn from other financing sources, a demand echoed by the Global South.

Next Monday (18 November), G20 members will meet in Rio, Brazil, where climate finance is expected to be a priority. There is hope that the meeting will yield a breakthrough that can translate into tangible progress at the COP negotiations.

Rising pressure for change in COP processes

Top UN voices have recently declared that the COP process is “no longer fit for purpose,” with prominent climate leaders such as Christiana Figueres, Ban Ki-Moon, and Mary Robinson calling for a comprehensive overhaul of the conference.

In a statement published on Friday, these climate leaders urged that a stricter eligibility criteria should be introduced to exclude countries from COPs that do not support the transition away from fossil fuels. They also called for host countries to demonstrate a strong commitment to the Paris Agreement’s goals.

This criticism comes amidst mounting evidence of the influence of the fossil fuel and carbon capture industry on COP proceedings.

A Global Witness investigation last week revealed that Azerbaijan, the host of COP29, has been facilitating fossil fuel deals, echoing similar concerns raised about Dubai’s presidency during COP28.

Furthermore, the Centre for International Environmental Law (CIEL) reported today (16 November) that nearly 480 carbon capture lobbyists were attending COP29, raising alarms about the industry’s growing sway in negotiations.

These figures add to the long list of fossil fuel lobbyists at the conference, with reports suggesting more than 1,700 such individuals are present, including high-profile figures from BP and Saudi Aramco.

The influence of big polluters was similarly apparent at COP28, where Saudi Arabia dismissed the final agreement as an “à la carte menu,” with carbon capture technologies as its likely selection.

This growing concern over the COP process has translated into global action. Thousands of protestors took to the streets in London today for the March for Global Climate Justice, calling for an end to fossil fuel financing, climate reparations and an end to complicity in human rights violations in Gaza.

The protest, supported by more than 60 organisations, is part of a worldwide wave of demonstrations, signalling increasing frustration with the current trajectory of climate talks.

Global clean energy, hydrogen and storage initiatives launched

The focus has clearly been on finance at Baku, and with COP29 considered more about implementation it is unsurprising that so few initiatives have been unveiled. That’s not to say notable strides haven’t been made to spur green tech markets across the globe.

While hosting a High-Level Roundtable on Green Energy, Hydrogen and Global Energy Storage and Grids on Energy Day in Baku, the COP29 Presidency officially launched three energy initiatives to help grow key clean energy technologies and markets. Some countries have already backed the initiatives.

The COP29 Global Energy Storage and Grids Pledge would see nations collectively aim to deploy 1,500 GW of energy storage globally by 2030, a six-fold increase on 2022 levels. Nations would also need to reinvigorate and update 25 million kilometres of grids globally by 2030, recognising the need to add or refurbish an additional 65 million kilometres by 2040. The UK and Sweden are among the countries to endorse the pledge.

The COP29 Green Energy Pledge: Green Energy Zones and Corridors sees countries promote green energy zones to connect low-carbon generators to communities through intraregional and interregional interconnected power grids.

Finally, the COP29 Hydrogen Declaration commits nations to scaling new clean hydrogen assets and decarbonising existing hydrogen production. Global production levels would “significantly” increase from one million tonnes annually today and reduce the 96 Mt of hydrogen currently produced from unabated fossil fuels. No direct target is referenced.

Nations slow out the blocks to update NDCs

One of the big breakthroughs at COP28 in Dubai was the agreement that nations would re-evaluate, and ideally resubmit, current national decarbonisation goals to realign them with the Paris Agreement.

Nations have until the end of February 2025 to update their targets and plans for delivering their fair share of the Paris Agreement, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).

The UK has led the charge on this front, committing to a new target to cut emissions by 81% by 2035. The 81% reduction has a 1990 baseline. This level of emissions cut was recommended to the UK Government last month by its official advisory body, the Climate Change Committee (CCC).

The UK has had a busy week in Baku, with ministers and even Prime Minister Keir Starmer leading discussions and announcements. See what the UK delegation has been up to in our round-up here.

There have been a few notable NDC updates at COP29, but some are already raising eyebrows as to how ambitious they truly are.

Brazil will host next year and the nation has released an updated NDC. It is targeting a 67% reduction in annual emissions by 2035 against a 2005 baseline. This is up from a 59% target previously and supports a 2050 ‘climate-neutrality’ vision. But most commentators believe it is still too weak to align with the Paris Agreement in full.

The UAE, last year’s host, has pledged to cut emissions by 40% by 2030, rising to 47% by 2035, and chosen a 2019 baseline. There are concerns that energy is not mentioned in the updated NDC’s sector-specific plans. But on the plus side, the UAE never used to set a baseline year, instead making pledges against a projected business-as-usual scenario. Switzerland has also updated its NDC to coincide with COP29.

Countries covering majority of global emissions pledge action

While we wait for more NDCs to be submitted, a sub-set of initiatives are being rolled out by nations. More than 60 countries, responsible for 80% of global emissions, have pledged support for a new series of priority actions to cut carbon in the coming year.

The Breakthrough Agenda, established to accelerate the global adoption of clean technologies, focuses on coordinating international action across high-emitting sectors—transport, energy, steel, buildings, and hydrogen—to support the global climate targets.

At COP29, dozens of nations have committed new “Baku Priority International Actions” under the Breakthrough Agenda. This list aims to strengthen collaboration in key sectors and advance climate action before next year’s COP in Brazil.

Emerging Markets and Developing Economies (EMDEs) are also a central focus of the Breakthrough Agenda’s Baku actions. The UK and Germany have jointly committed more $420m to the Climate Investment Fund’s Industry Decarbonisation Programme, aiming to increase the programme’s funding to $1.3bn.